Thoughts from the VAMM trading floor — on shipping, price discovery, origin movements, policy, and the long arc of the Indian minerals trade.
Consensus view is that oversupply and structural demand decline will drive GAR 4200 below $55/t through Q3. We think the opposite — freight discipline, a tighter than reported production base, and stronger Indian monsoon power demand will set a floor closer to $68/t. Here is the analysis.
Read the Full BriefWith Australian coking supply increasingly concentrated, Indian integrated steelmakers have a risk-management case — and perhaps a cost case — for structured supply from the Appalachian basin.
Read more →Longer voyages mean longer freight, and longer freight means the delivered price on every Indian-port cargo shifts by $4–6/t. A practical framing of how to price into this environment.
Read more →Transnet's rail-capacity recovery is the single biggest swing factor in the South African export coal market for 2026. We walk through what has changed, what hasn't, and what to believe.
Read more →Substituting PCI for coke is one of the few near-term moves integrated steelmakers can make on carbon without capex. The numbers, the operational considerations, and what it means for supply.
Read more →High-calcium limestone from UAE and Oman has grown from a niche trade to 6 MTPA into Indian ports. We look at what drove the shift and where it plateaus.
Read more →Commercial coal auctions have become a central fixture of Indian mineral policy. We interpret the pipeline, the grades, and what it means for domestic pricing.
Read more →Two years into a reconfigured trade map, the anthracite market has quietly stabilised at a new equilibrium. An inside view of how the flows have reshaped.
Read more →Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is slowly but surely redirecting Chinese and Colombian coke flows towards Asian buyers. A structural primer.
Read more →A practical note on hedging exposures for Indian importers holding annual coal tenders — forwards, options, and the art of not overpaying for certainty.
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